The CEBR predicted that India will regain sixth position from France next year and become the third largest economy in 2031, a year later the previously predicted. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has predicted that India will regain sixth position from France next year and become the third largest economy in 2031, a year later the previously predicted.
CEBR, one of the UK’s leading economics consultancies, in its annual World Economic League Table also predicted that China will overtake the US in 2030, two years later than forecast a year ago.
The London-based think tank said, over the next 15 years, India will see an improvement in its ranking in the World Economic League Table (WELT), rising from 7th place in 2021 to be the world’s third-largest economy in 2036.
India will again take over France to regain its 6th place in WELT ranking for 2022, which it briefly lost to France in 2021, the CEBR added. The think tank said, the Covid-19 pandemic has been nothing short of devastating for the country. Indeed, India has the third highest death toll worldwide, ranking behind the US and Brazil.
A large drop in daily active cases has also contributed to a sharp rebound in economic activity in 2021, following a GDP contraction of 7.3% in 2020. The London-based think tank further said the world economy is set to surpass US$ 100 trillion for the first time in 2022, two years earlier than previously forecast.
Global gross domestic product (GDP) will be lifted by the continued recovery from the pandemic, although if inflation persists it may be hard for policy makers to avoid tipping their economies back into recession, the economic consultant added.
“The important issue for the 2020s is how the world economies cope with inflation,” said Douglas McWilliams, the CEBR’s deputy chairman. “We hope that a relatively modest adjustment to the tiller will bring the non-transitory elements under control. If not, then the world will need to brace itself for a recession in 2023 or 2024.”
The CEBR said climate change will lower consumer spending by US$ 2 trillion a year on average through 2036 as companies pass on the cost of decarbonising investment.