In the race to outpace developed economies, emerging countries such as China, India, and Brazil suffered a setback this year and will outgrow them later than previously expected, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) said. The Cebr consultancy’s 2019 World Economic League Table was more downbeat on the global economy than last year’s outlook. “For the medium term, we are roughly as optimistic as we were a year ago, but suspect the route to growth will be more bumpy than we had assumed 12 months ago,” said the report, which forecast the fortunes of 193 countries to 2033.
China is likely to overtake the United States as the world’s No. 1 economy in 2032, two years later than previously expected, due to a more lax monetary policy and lower exchange rate, the Cebr said. It expects Brazil to overtake Italy in 2020, not 2018. India would overtake Britain and France, probably in 2019, but possibly 2020, rather than in 2018 as it predicted a year ago. Britain would likely lose its place as the sixth biggest economy to France next year due to Brexit-related disruption, but should regain that position by 2023. The Cebr also projected Ireland to be among the fastest growing economies in the euro zone next year, but said Brexit posed a big downside risk to that forecast. The effects of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies have made themselves felt across global markets this year, and dented world trade growth. The volume of world trade growth is likely to be up 2.99% this year, less than two-thirds of the increase in 2017, the Cebr estimates.