CAI Does An Upward Revision Of Cotton Crop Estimate

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Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its May estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2017-18 beginning from 1st October 2017. The CAI has estimated cotton crop for the ongoing 2017-18 season at 365 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each, which is higher by 5 lakh bales from its previous estimate – 3 lakh bales in Gujarat, 1 Lakh bales in Karnataka, 50,000 bales in Andhra Pradesh & 25,000 bales each in the states of Madhya Pradesh & Tamil Nadu.  

This estimated increase in production figures is mainly due to the realization of higher yields more particularly in the State of Gujarat.The Statistic Committee of the CAI, in its meeting held recentlywhich was also attended by over 30 representatives from various upcountry associations, MNCs, Ginners, Exporters, Importers, textile mills, etc, has reviewed the current cotton scenario.

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The total cotton supply upto 31st May, 2018 has been projected at  378.50 lakh bales which consists of the opening stock of 30 lakh bales at the beginning of the season on 1st October, 2017, the arrival of 340 lakh bales upto 31st May, 2018 and imports which the Committee has estimated at 8.50 lakh bales upto May end.

Further, the Committee has estimated cotton consumption for 8 months i.e. from October, 2017 to May, 2018 at 216 lakh bales at an average of 27 Lakh bales per month while the export shipment till 31st May 2018 has been estimated at 62 lakh bales. The stock at the end of May, 2018 is estimated at 100.50 lakh bales including 58 lakh bales with textile mills while the remaining 42.50 lakh bales are estimated to be held with CCI & others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc). 

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The projected yearly Balance Sheet for the Season 2017-18 drawn by the CAI has estimated total cotton supply till end of the season i.e. upto 30th September 2018 at 410 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each including the opening stock of 30 lakh bales at the beginning of the season. The CAI has estimated domestic consumption for the season at 324 lakh bales while the exports for the season are estimated by the CAI at 70 lakh bales. The carry-over stock at the end of the 2017-18 crop year is estimated at 16 lakh bales.

It may be noted that the crop size of 365 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each is equal to 388 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each and the estimated arrival of 340 lakh bales 170 kgs. each upto 31st May, 2018 is equal to 362 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each. Around 93 % of the total crop for the season has already arrived in the market upto 31st May, 2018.

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