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India’s 2026-27 Cotton Crop Seen 18- 20% Lower At 270-290.5 Lakh Bales

• By  Atul Ganatra, CMD, Radha Lakshmi Group
• October 31, 2026

India’s cotton production for the 2026-27 season is estimated at 270-290.5 lakh bales of 170 kg each, representing an expected decline of 18-20% from the previous season. The second standing crop survey, based on discussions with 80 ginners, traders, multinational companies and brokers across 10 cotton-growing states, points to lower production prospects amid deficient rainfall, high temperatures and uneven crop conditions.

State-wise crop assessment

North India: Cotton sowing is down 18%, although standing crop conditions are generally good. Low soil moisture and high temperatures could affect yields. Pressing is estimated at 28-30 lakh bales, close to last season.

Gujarat: Crop conditions are relatively better than in several other states, but high daytime temperatures could reduce yields. Local production is estimated at 56 lakh bales, around 12% lower than last year. Arrivals of 7-12 lakh bales of kapas from other states could take total pressing to 62-70 lakh bales.

Maharashtra: Sowing is at last year's level, but crop conditions vary sharply. Vidarbha and Akola are expected to produce 50-53 lakh bales, while Khandesh could contribute 10-12 lakh bales. Marathwada faces severe crop stress, with losses estimated at 40-50% due to poor rainfall and high temperatures. Overall state production is projected to be around 20% lower, with pressing estimated at 85-92 lakh bales.

Madhya Pradesh: Sowing has increased 5%, and crop conditions are currently good. Pressing is estimated at 17-18 lakh bales, broadly in line with last season.

Telangana: Sowing is up 5%, but crop conditions are mixed. Adilabad and Warangal are doing well, while Mahbubnagar and Nalgonda have been affected by inadequate rainfall. Production could decline 20% to 35-37 lakh bales.

Andhra Pradesh: Poor rainfall over the past three months has severely affected the crop. Production is expected to fall 35% to 13-14 lakh bales.

Karnataka: Sowing is at last year's level, but poor rainfall is expected to reduce yields sharply. Pressing could decline 30-35% to 19-20 lakh bales.

Tamil Nadu: Sowing is expected to take place after Diwali, with production estimated at 5 lakh bales.

Odisha: Sowing is down 15-20%, while excessive rainfall has further damaged crop prospects. Production is expected to decline 30% to 2-2.5 lakh bales.

All-India pressing estimates

Weather remains critical

Deficient rainfall during June-October, attributed to El Niño conditions, has reduced soil moisture and water availability for the later pickings. The next 20-30 days will be critical in determining the final crop size.

Rainfall of 3-4 inches over the next 10-15 days could add 10-15 lakh bales to production. However, excessive rainfall of 5-10 inches in any state could damage standing crops.

The final cotton crop survey is scheduled for November 15, 2026.

Deficient rainfall during June-October, attributed to El Niño conditions, has reduced soil moisture and water availability for the later pickings. The next 20-30 days will be critical in determining the final crop size. Rainfall of 3-4 inches over the next 10-15 days could add 10-15 lakh bales to production. However, excessive rainfall of 5-10 inches in any state could damage standing crops. The final cotton crop survey is scheduled for November 15, 2026.